\u201cI am more concerned now than I have been in my 30 years of farming,\u201d Mueller told NBC News.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Even before the Iran war, Mueller said, many farmers felt they were being squeezed. Consolidation in the fertilizer industry and increased competition from abroad have resulted in higher prices for fertilizer and feed \u2014 and smaller returns on Mueller\u2019s corn and soybean crops. <\/p>\n
Many farmers who couldn\u2019t pay their bills in recent years went under. In 2025, the number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies reached 315, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That was up 46% from the previous year.<\/p>\n
Now, the Iran war is putting even more pressure on farmers. <\/p>\n
Before the war, roughly a third of the world\u2019s fertilizer ingredients and a fifth of its oil supplies passed every day through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran\u2019s southern coast. But since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the strait has been effectively closed by Tehran, leaving scores of tankers stranded. <\/p>\n
The strait\u2019s closure has driven up global prices for fertilizer and for the diesel fuel that powers most of America\u2019s heavy agricultural equipment.<\/p>\n
The double whammy is hitting farmers just as they head into the spring planting season.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is that perfect storm where everything comes together and hammers the farmer,\u201d said Mueller, who also serves as the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association.<\/p>\n
Mueller said his fertilizer supplier was selling a nitrogen fertilizer he needs for $795 per ton on Feb. 22, a few days before the war started. At the end of March, it was $990, Mueller said, a nearly $200 jump in just a few weeks.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the price he\u2019s paying for diesel has jumped, too. Diesel is now averaging $5.51 nationwide, up from $3.76 right before the war, according to AAA.<\/p>\n
Mueller said he got most of the fertilizer he needs for spring before the war \u2014 but had to buy some at the higher prices. He\u2019s holding off on purchasing the additional fertilizer he needs for summer, hoping prices will come down.<\/p>\nMark Mueller, a farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, thinks America is on the cusp of a farm crisis.<\/span>Courtesy of Iowa Corn<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nPresident Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs have also added to the cost of goods that farmers import from overseas \u2014 and frustrated many of the foreign buyers of America\u2019s agricultural products. <\/p>\n
\u201cOur government made our life more difficult by walking away from trade deals or instituting tariffs or just basically making our customers angry \u2014 our customers being other nations and companies in other nations,\u201d said Mueller.<\/p>\n
Lance Lillibridge, a corn and cattle farmer from Vinton, Iowa, told NBC News he plans to use less fertilizer this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m probably going to see a reduction in yield,\u201d said Lillibridge. \u201cIf there\u2019s not the supply out there, then the price is going to go up.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the war continues, the higher prices could ripple through the supply chain and ultimately result in higher prices at the supermarket.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re talking about all the crops and all the food products that we consume on a daily basis,\u201d said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. <\/p>\n
\u201cAnything that is grown and that requires fertilizers, which is most of everything that we consume, is potentially affected by this rise in fertilizer prices,\u201d said Daco. \u201cAnd as a result, we may see these prices rise rapidly across grocery stores in the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n
Take corn, for example. If corn prices spike, then feeding cattle becomes more expensive for many farmers. Plus cattle farmers are also dealing with the higher fuel prices. The cost of beef has already hit record highs \u2014 in part from shrinking cattle herds and drought \u2014 and it could surge even more.<\/p>\n
\u201cI worry about how much more consumers will continue to pay for beef,\u201d said Will Harris, a fourth-generation cattle farmer in Bluffton, Georgia. \u201cI think that I can produce it as cheap as anybody else, but I don\u2019t know where consumers draw their lines.\u201d<\/p>\n
It may take a while for price increases on the farm to show up at the grocery store. Farmers are just planting their spring crops now, and it could take months for them to be harvested and sent off to distribution centers and eventually grocery stores.<\/p>\n
But consumers may see higher prices sooner rather than later, because of higher transport costs with pricier diesel.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re feeling these costs now, it\u2019s only going to continue to increase as the supply chain fills with higher-cost goods,\u201d said Lillibridge.<\/p>\n
\u201cCorn is used in over 4,000 products,\u201d he added. \u201cIt\u2019s not just food \u2014 it\u2019s industrial products, like your paper that you would put in your printer has cornstarch in it, plastics, just tons of things have industrial uses from corn.\u201d<\/p>\n
Economists say the longer the war stretches on, the larger the effects could be.<\/p>\nNewly harvested corn in Inwood, Iowa. Consumers may see higher prices sooner rather than later because of higher transport costs with pricier diesel. <\/span>Jim West \/ UCG\/Universal Images Group via Getty images file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\u201cRight now, our farmers can get the product \u2014 it\u2019s just really expensive,\u201d said Faith Parum, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, an advocacy group for farmers and ranchers. \u201cWe\u2019re slowly starting to hear the longer this goes on, we\u2019re also going to have issues with even the availability of the fertilizer.\u201d<\/p>\n
That could further strain farmers. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going on to year four of losses across the farm economy,\u201d said Parum. \u201cIt\u2019s going to become harder and harder for them to put a crop in the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n
Before the war, the Agriculture Department estimated that farm sector debt could reach a record $624.7 billion in 2026.<\/p>\n
Farmers have received some financial assistance from the federal government over the years. In December, the Trump administration announced a new tranche of $12 billion in aid to farmers.<\/p>\n
At a White House event for farmers in March, Trump said that he would push for more aid and urged Congress to pass a new farm bill. <\/p>\n
Trump also pledged to ask Congress to permit year-round sales of E15, an unleaded fuel blended with 15% ethanol that the American Farm Bureau Federation says could save consumers money at the gas pump and create markets for American-grown crops.<\/p>\nFarmers listen as President Donald Trump speaks at the White House on Friday. During the event, Trump urged Congress to pass a new farm bill. <\/span>Alex Wong \/ Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMueller was among the farmers last month at the White House, where he listened to Trump.<\/p>\n
\u201cI guess I would liken it to empty calories,\u201d he said of the president\u2019s remarks. \u201cIt was like a pep rally with very little being said.\u201d <\/p>\n
Mueller fears that the mounting pressures on farmers, exacerbated by the war, could lead some to hang up their hats for good.<\/p>\n
\u201cI really do see fewer farmers when it\u2019s all done,\u201d he said. \u201cIn the end, the consumer will still have fewer choices, probably have a little higher prices, and farmers will have less margin than they did before.\u201d<\/p>\n
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